| # | Pair | Coupon | Tenor | Entry | Breach | Stress | Quality | Conc. | Verdict |
|---|
| Criterion | ✅ Pass | ⚠️ Consider | ❌ Fail |
|---|---|---|---|
Entry Point Graham · Margin of Safety |
Both stocks ≥25% below 52-week high | Either stock 15–24% below high | Either stock <15% below high |
Breach Probability Kelly · Expected Value |
Worst-of breach ≤8% | 8–10% | >10% |
2008 Stress Test Taleb · Tail Risk |
Both survive, each >20% above EKI | Either survives within 0–20% of EKI | Either stock breaches EKI |
Quality Buffett · Business Durability |
All: D/E <100% · P/E <35x · OCF growing · Rev conc <60% | 2+ metrics in band: D/E 100-200% · P/E 35-50x · OCF flat · Rev 60-75% | Any single: D/E >200% · P/E >50x · OCF negative · Rev >75% |
Concentration Markowitz · Portfolio Correlation |
No overlap · pair corr <0.4 | Adjacent sector · corr 0.4–0.6 | Direct repeat · corr >0.6 |
| Verdict | Logic | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Pass | All five criteria pass | Execute |
| Consider | One or two criteria in consider band, none fail | Execute with documented acknowledgment |
| Fail | Any single criterion fails | Do not execute · Request alternative pair |